This uncertainty is occurring in the context of a growing trading volume in the market and expected devaluation rates that exceeded 200% per year, while the Central Bank remains on the sidelines.

As a result of the cutback in soybean production, Argentina’s need to import raw materials to keep its factories afloat has intensified. Brazil floods the market with maize and soya, putting pressure on prices.

In the first quarter, 5.5 million MT of soybeans were crushed, with the industry operating at 30% of capacity. Imports in the same period totaled 1.8 Mil MT, with March hitting an all-time high.

The lower supply for the new cycle is being felt in the market. In March, only 2.1 Mil MT were shipped, marking the worst season kick-off in 6 years. Meanwhile, feed demand is trying to adjust to the new context at the expense of costs.

Large carry plus record imports fail to compensate for the drop in production: crush levels fall to a minimum in two decades, and bean exports are expected to place at the lowest volume since the mid-1990s.

Drought, potential economic recession and adverse export market could push biodiesel demand to its second lowest level in fifteen years. News from Brazil, Bolivia and the United States.

The crop was estimated at 4.5 Mil MT, 20% less than in 2021/22. Compared to the 50% year-on-year drop in wheat, the retraction is less drastic. From a commercial point of view, 2023 started with a good pace of grain barley exports.

7.67 Mil MT have been traded, representing 67% of production. To be fixed amounts to 2.96 Mil MT and in relation to total marketed represents 39%, a maximum since at least the 1999/00 crop.

The 2022/23 coarse crop is expected to be substantially smaller than the lasts 5-year average, affecting grain availability. Extension of 2022/23 maize shipments was allowed. WASDE and a trade week particularly alert to historical rain shortages.

Despite the drop in production, the pace of wheat milling remains firm, in January it grew by 8% year-on-year. Downward trends in local and international prices.

Although the 2022/23 maize commercial year formally begins on March 1st, early corn lots have already begun to be harvested, with yields that are expected to be meagre.

With main planting operations coming to an end, soybean and maize trades are the slowest in terms of volume in the last seven years, with a large portion of purchases still to be fixed. Brazilian maize exports in January were the highest in history.

Argentina’s main export product showing low levels in January after the strong trades done last December, due to the Government’s “Dollar Soya II”.

Between 1-26/DEC, 485,000 MT of wheat were discharged at Upriver ports, 80% below last year, and the lowest level recorded since 2013. The supply shortage supports prices, and the US takes advantage of the situation to increase area.

Wheat milling closed the 2021/22 marketing year stable in terms of processed tons, while flour production may have been the second largest. However, the outlook poses challenges for the new season.

The 2021/22 wheat season started on the first day of December 2021 and ended on 30 November 2022. More than 25 million tons were traded in the domestic market, while more than 15 million tons were declared as exports.

The low soil moisture prevents more stronger progress in the planting of grains in Argentina. The Parana River levels rise and improves the loading of ships at Upriver. How are the corn and soybean markets?

Main reasons for slower trading pace for the new sunflower crop: World market uncertainty, less-than-optimal production conditions and drop in prices.

Lack of rain hinders corn sowing in Argentina. September, a month of very high soybean truck arrivals, with good prospects for October. Lower production and recession fears: October WASDE and price outlook.

Uncertainty in the outcome of the Black Sea conflict, along with the volatility in world trade, continue to drive up prices. Locally, Argentine milling continues to increase 0.5 Mil MT per month.

Soybean delivery at Upriver last week grew by 120% over the average of the past three months. SB imports continue at their lowest level in five years. While the drought surprises in the United States, funds are taking positions.

The robust late-crop corn strongly enforces maize stock ready to supply Argentina’s domestic and export markets. In addition, conservative trade estimates in the US push prices upward.

The Export Increase Program caused high levels of purchases, which turned into exports, thus reducing prices. Upward adjustment of biodiesel prices. Corn peaks at equilibrium volume.

Agriculture represents a mere 7.7% of Argentine imports. So far in 2022, those imports have grown by more than 45%, thus substantially limiting the trade surplus. Energy imports grew the most by far.

To date, the main exporters of grains, oilseeds and by-products in Argentina have been Cargill and COFCO with 9.6 and 9 Mil MT respectively, while Bunge completes the podium, coming in 3rd place.

The supply needs of the local market put pressure on the prices of spot deliveries, surpassing values of the deferred oilseed deliveries. Investment funds reduce their long positions in coarse grains.

The flow corn trucks to port terminals in the last month was lower than 2021 as harvest slows down, as well as showing lower yields. Additionally, the production of biodiesel grew strongly in the first semester.

Wheat stocks of the world’s largest exporters have been decreasing, and cereal prices continue to show a bullish response. For this reason, and with greater export potential, Argentina has distributed its shipments among a greater number of destinations.

Agro-industrial shipments in the first half of the year have reached 51.2 Mil MT, 6% more than in the first half of last year. Asia continues to be the main destination for Argentine shipments.

From nominal values reached recently, soybean prices fell by almost 25% and corn prices by 28%. A strong dollar coupled with looser balance sheets explains the declines.

For the 2021/22 sorghum campaign, a production decrease close to 500,000 tons is expected, when compared to the previous cycle. Furthermore, same as in the last campaign, exports will represent the main destination of the commercial activity.

With almost three months passed since the beginning of the 2021/22 soybean commercial campaign, the commercialization of the oilseed remains at low levels, measured in absolute terms, with only 18.5 Mil MT originated to date by the industrial and exporting sectors.

While the maize harvest is delayed due to high moisture, wheat planting scales up to 31% of the target area. In the United States, wheat ends its 2021/22 campaign with the worst volume of exports on record.