The United States has sharply increased its imports of vegetable oils to supply its biodiesel industry. For the moment, this source is practically out of the soybean oil export market despite falling prices.

A phenomenal increase in average yields would partly compensate for the sharp drop in sown area, but total supply would still be tight in the face of strong demand. International dynamics could bring better prices for Argentine grain.

The rains have helped to recompose the humidity in the soil with a view to the new soybean season, which is progressing steadily towards April next year.

Crushing volume for the ninth month of the year totaled just 1.9 million tonnes. Although corn purchases as a percentage of production show a lag compared to previous years, 9.2 million tonnes are still available for commercialization until February.

Production complications in the main exporters would bring the stock/consumption ratio to more than ten-year lows. At the local level, caution prevails with a view to the new season.

Despite still being negative, the industry’s theoretical margin is decompressed, boosting sales. In maize, business totaled 1.3 million tonnes in just two days, although due to the lack of water, the area pending planting is the second highest on record.

Monthly wheat exports continue to accentuate the fall. The “cheap” Russian wheat was able to position itself at values that make it attractive for the South American market.

The idle capacity of the industry would reach 62% during the current cycle. Meanwhile, early maize planting is progressing with strong delays due to the lack of rainfall.

Which wheat markets can expand for Argentina in the coming season? Russian wheat continues to impose the downward trend in Chicago, although significant production cuts are projected for the new crop. Australia falls sharply in production and exports, which could leave a window open for local wheat.

The cause could be found in the differential in gross margins that exists between the industry and exports. In the meantime, corn mutual funds in Chicago are trading at 2020 levels.

Caution reigns as the rains avoid key production areas, and with the expectation of a recovery in commercial conditions in the future. The international outlook focuses on the Black Sea but prepares for a tight 2023/24.

Maize marketing is the lowest since 2015, although 2023 purchases are proceeding apace. Sunflower accumulates a four-year high in domestic purchases.

Argentina’s second largest exporter feels the effects of the drought on its foreign trade, with a drop in exports of US$ 2.275 million. The Dolar Agro ends. A week of uncertainty and commercial paralysis for soya.

Soybean crushing in the first four months of the season is the lowest since 2007/08, while the industry’s idle capacity is on the rise. Soybean imports so far in 2023 have already surpassed the annual record.

Advance wheat purchases by industry and exports fall 80% year-on-year to less than 1 million tonnes. Argentina’s share of wheat imports from Brazil fell to 62%, with export prices proving uncompetitive.

For the first time in 26 years, Brazil has displaced Argentina from first place in soybean meal exports.

Fertilizer imports fell to 0.9 million tonnes during the first six months of the year. Despite this, wheat planting is proceeding normally, as is milling. Russia’s attacks on Ukraine impact grain prices.

India has consolidated its position as Argentina’s fifth largest trading partner. It is also the main export destination for Santa Fe province and the Soy Complex. The key role of vegetable oils.

The season that looked set to see the highest anticipated maize sales in history is now at a five-year low in foreign sales. More than 12 million tonnes of 2022/23 maize could still be traded.

Between contracts and fixings, average wheat purchases fall more than 53%. Planting 2023/24 is progressing in line with previous years. Despite the war, Russia closes a record season and goes for another record high.

The costs associated with production would have amounted to more than US$ 16.4 billion in the season, 23% above the previous cycle, explained by the increase in the price of inputs.

Agro-industrial activity shows signs of stagnation in April 2023, after an upturn in March. Soybean industrialization, biodiesel and bioethanol production explain the fall.

Fewer tonnes exported and falling prices sharply cut net agricultural exports. This year, total exports are expected to fall by at least 21%.

Soybean and Maize truck volumes are down 49% and 64% respectively from last year. Soybean imports at record levels. Corn trade dynamics continue, with more discretion in soybeans.

Eight rounds before the end of the “Dollar Soy III” ForEx initiative, the commercialization of the oilseed has picked up. However, accumulated exports remain at a minimum due to the severe drought. Argentine Late Corn is coming up, but with prices threatened.

This uncertainty is occurring in the context of a growing trading volume in the market and expected devaluation rates that exceeded 200% per year, while the Central Bank remains on the sidelines.

As a result of the cutback in soybean production, Argentina’s need to import raw materials to keep its factories afloat has intensified. Brazil floods the market with maize and soya, putting pressure on prices.

In the first quarter, 5.5 million MT of soybeans were crushed, with the industry operating at 30% of capacity. Imports in the same period totaled 1.8 Mil MT, with March hitting an all-time high.

The lower supply for the new cycle is being felt in the market. In March, only 2.1 Mil MT were shipped, marking the worst season kick-off in 6 years. Meanwhile, feed demand is trying to adjust to the new context at the expense of costs.

Large carry plus record imports fail to compensate for the drop in production: crush levels fall to a minimum in two decades, and bean exports are expected to place at the lowest volume since the mid-1990s.

Drought, potential economic recession and adverse export market could push biodiesel demand to its second lowest level in fifteen years. News from Brazil, Bolivia and the United States.

The crop was estimated at 4.5 Mil MT, 20% less than in 2021/22. Compared to the 50% year-on-year drop in wheat, the retraction is less drastic. From a commercial point of view, 2023 started with a good pace of grain barley exports.

7.67 Mil MT have been traded, representing 67% of production. To be fixed amounts to 2.96 Mil MT and in relation to total marketed represents 39%, a maximum since at least the 1999/00 crop.

The 2022/23 coarse crop is expected to be substantially smaller than the lasts 5-year average, affecting grain availability. Extension of 2022/23 maize shipments was allowed. WASDE and a trade week particularly alert to historical rain shortages.

Despite the drop in production, the pace of wheat milling remains firm, in January it grew by 8% year-on-year. Downward trends in local and international prices.

Although the 2022/23 maize commercial year formally begins on March 1st, early corn lots have already begun to be harvested, with yields that are expected to be meagre.

With main planting operations coming to an end, soybean and maize trades are the slowest in terms of volume in the last seven years, with a large portion of purchases still to be fixed. Brazilian maize exports in January were the highest in history.

Argentina’s main export product showing low levels in January after the strong trades done last December, due to the Government’s “Dollar Soya II”.

Between 1-26/DEC, 485,000 MT of wheat were discharged at Upriver ports, 80% below last year, and the lowest level recorded since 2013. The supply shortage supports prices, and the US takes advantage of the situation to increase area.

Wheat milling closed the 2021/22 marketing year stable in terms of processed tons, while flour production may have been the second largest. However, the outlook poses challenges for the new season.

The 2021/22 wheat season started on the first day of December 2021 and ended on 30 November 2022. More than 25 million tons were traded in the domestic market, while more than 15 million tons were declared as exports.

The low soil moisture prevents more stronger progress in the planting of grains in Argentina. The Parana River levels rise and improves the loading of ships at Upriver. How are the corn and soybean markets?

Main reasons for slower trading pace for the new sunflower crop: World market uncertainty, less-than-optimal production conditions and drop in prices.

Lack of rain hinders corn sowing in Argentina. September, a month of very high soybean truck arrivals, with good prospects for October. Lower production and recession fears: October WASDE and price outlook.

Uncertainty in the outcome of the Black Sea conflict, along with the volatility in world trade, continue to drive up prices. Locally, Argentine milling continues to increase 0.5 Mil MT per month.

Soybean delivery at Upriver last week grew by 120% over the average of the past three months. SB imports continue at their lowest level in five years. While the drought surprises in the United States, funds are taking positions.

The robust late-crop corn strongly enforces maize stock ready to supply Argentina’s domestic and export markets. In addition, conservative trade estimates in the US push prices upward.

The Export Increase Program caused high levels of purchases, which turned into exports, thus reducing prices. Upward adjustment of biodiesel prices. Corn peaks at equilibrium volume.

Agriculture represents a mere 7.7% of Argentine imports. So far in 2022, those imports have grown by more than 45%, thus substantially limiting the trade surplus. Energy imports grew the most by far.

To date, the main exporters of grains, oilseeds and by-products in Argentina have been Cargill and COFCO with 9.6 and 9 Mil MT respectively, while Bunge completes the podium, coming in 3rd place.

The supply needs of the local market put pressure on the prices of spot deliveries, surpassing values of the deferred oilseed deliveries. Investment funds reduce their long positions in coarse grains.

The flow corn trucks to port terminals in the last month was lower than 2021 as harvest slows down, as well as showing lower yields. Additionally, the production of biodiesel grew strongly in the first semester.

Wheat stocks of the world’s largest exporters have been decreasing, and cereal prices continue to show a bullish response. For this reason, and with greater export potential, Argentina has distributed its shipments among a greater number of destinations.

Agro-industrial shipments in the first half of the year have reached 51.2 Mil MT, 6% more than in the first half of last year. Asia continues to be the main destination for Argentine shipments.

From nominal values reached recently, soybean prices fell by almost 25% and corn prices by 28%. A strong dollar coupled with looser balance sheets explains the declines.

For the 2021/22 sorghum campaign, a production decrease close to 500,000 tons is expected, when compared to the previous cycle. Furthermore, same as in the last campaign, exports will represent the main destination of the commercial activity.

With almost three months passed since the beginning of the 2021/22 soybean commercial campaign, the commercialization of the oilseed remains at low levels, measured in absolute terms, with only 18.5 Mil MT originated to date by the industrial and exporting sectors.

While the maize harvest is delayed due to high moisture, wheat planting scales up to 31% of the target area. In the United States, wheat ends its 2021/22 campaign with the worst volume of exports on record.